League Position, Wage Expenditure and Goal Percentage Based on Set-Pieces Analysis of English Premier League Clubs

Abstract

This study aimed to understand the relationship between an English Premier League club’s league position, average annual player wage bill and their dependence on set-pieces for goals. The relationships between these variables were studied in this research paper using Spearman’s rank correlation. The data was collected from the 2018-19 and 2019-20 English Premier League seasons from the official Premier League website, for the 20 clubs playing in the league for each corresponding season. A total of 760 matches were watched and analysed over the two seasons. The results showed that (1) there exists a significant moderate negative correlation (⍴ = -0.542 for 2018-19 and ⍴ = -0.516 for 2019-20) between a team’s final league position and their percentage of set-piece goals, and (2) a moderate negative correlation (⍴ =  -0.493 for 2018-19 and ⍴ = -0.475 for 2019-20) between a team’s average weekly player wages and their percentage of set-piece goals. A high positive correlation (⍴ =  0.866 for 2018-19 and ⍴ = 0.733 for 2019-20) was also found between a club’s league position and its player wage expenditure which reinforces previous findings. This implies that teams lower in the league table tend to be more reliant on set-pieces to score goals. Similarly, teams with a lower average weekly player wage tend to be more dependent on set-pieces to score goals. Teams higher in the league table or with a greater wage bill do not necessarily score fewer goals via set-pieces but tend to score more goals from open play than lower opposition, which is why their percentage of goals scored via set-pieces is less. These results could impact managers’ tactics before games, a club’s recruitment strategies as well as the football betting industry.